CAN PRONATALIST POLICIES FIX FALLING BIRTH RATES?

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Generally, they can only slow them down.

Countries with declining birth rates have implemented policies like:

• subsidized child care
• extended parental leave
• baby bonuses and
• tax breaks to incentivize having babies.

WHAT POLICIES WORK TO ADDRESS POPULATION DECLINE?

• Immigration
• Keeping populations healthier so they can live and work longer

THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION’S PRONATALIST POLICY PROPOSALS

The Trump Administration is considering policy proposals to address America’s falling birth rate including:

• 5k Baby Bonuses
• Menstrual cycle classes
• 30% quota for married applicants to Fulbright Scholarships
• “National Medal of Motherhood” to mothers with 6+ children
• Increases in transportation funding to areas with higher birth rates
• Expanded research and access for infertility treatments

WHY SHOULD I CARE?

The US birth rate is projected to be 1.62 in 2025, below replacement (2.1).

Declining populations have serious implications for the economy. Without a younger population entering the workforce and replacing retiring workers, contributions to programs like Social Security will decrease and may not fully cover the aging population. With a smaller workforce, employers may not be able to hire the workers they need.

Still, as women become more educated and earn more, they are less willing to leave the workforce. More women are attending college and becoming primary breadwinners for their family. Women then have fewer children or forego having children at all.

The opportunity cost of parenting is too high unless policies dramatically change that calculus.

Sources

Kitchener, Caroline. Trump Aides Solicit Ideas to Raise Birthrate, from Baby Bonuses to Fertility Planning – The New York Times, 21AD, www.nytimes.com/2025/04/21/us/politics/trump-birthrate-proposals.html.

“The Demographic Outlook: 2025 to 2055.” Congressional Budget Office, 1 Jan. 2025, www.cbo.gov/publication/61164.

Bloom, Jonty. “How Can Countries Deal with Falling Birth Rates?” BBC News, BBC, 20 May 2024, www.bbc.com/news/articles/c72p2vgd21no.

Fry, Richard. “In a Growing Share of U.S. Marriages, Husbands and Wives Earn about the Same.” Pew Research Center, Pew Research Center, 13 Apr. 2023, www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2023/04/13/in-a-growing-share-of-u-s-marriages-husbands-and-wives-earn-about-the-same/#:~:text=work%20is%20ideal.-,The%20earnings%20landscape%20of%20marriages%20today,husband%20was%20the%20sole%20provider.

Nietzel, Michael T. “Women Continue to Outpace Men in College Enrollment and Graduation.” Forbes, Forbes Magazine, 8 Aug. 2024, www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltnietzel/2024/08/07/women-continue-to-outpace-men-in-college-enrollment-and-graduation/.